Brushfire of Freedom
The Irritable Pundit
Tech time people. The FCC has rolled up their sleeves and slaved away for a year to come up with a new "Broadband Strategy", to be released on an unsuspecting public in a couple of days.
In a nutshell, their findings and recommendations are 1) That stuff is expensive 2) You are all idiots and 3) they sold off bandwidth spectrum licenses before they realized broadband is a gold mine. They now think they sold them too cheap and want to take some back to sell again, to give to their own agencies, and the rumor is to create a new nationwide network as well for "the little people". Sure, that last bit is directly anti-competitive with the private providers who have invested billions to deploy networks, but who cares about business? This is to ensure all Americans—regardless of location, income, or education level—are able to access the Internet anywhere, anytime! The Government has decided to own a chunk of the cloud and all of your information.
The cloud is a right you see. Internet access is right up there with Life, Liberty and the pursuit of... well, you get the idea. All hail the mighty cloud!
Umm... OK.
But what is it exactly, this "cloud" thing?
It is where all of your data, pictures, medical information (uh oh), correspondences and more will live on a hosted server somewhere out there in cyberspace, with all applications (Word, Excel, etc.) being delivered to simple idiot proof devices via the internet as well. Many large corporations are betting the farm and scrambling to be the owner of the cloud and by default, you. The Government just wants it's piece too. Yes, that really is the general direction tech is heading to, but It is also at least somewhat hype and marketing dust.
Don't get me wrong, cloud computing will definitely become much bigger, especially in the business market. It is a great direction to go for many companies, allowing them to offload expensive IT infrastructure support. In fact, we used to just call it "IT Outsourcing, but that is just not sexy enough anymore. But I question the hype of a complete and utter transformation being any more successful than “Web 2.0!” was going to be for business and the general populace no more than a year ago.
I question it for 4 simple reasons:
1) Moore’s law. A 40 + year old prediction that every 18 months to 2 years computing power doubles.
2) Developers are more clever than we ever give them credit for
3) Greed
(I'll get to the 4th reason later)
Look at your phone. Some of them (iPhone/Droid) have the same power and computing ability as some laptops sold from Best Buy 5 years ago, yet they only have limited content and apps on the web, the rest is local (the iPad will follow a similar model). Why is that important? Can’t you put everything on the web? Sure! Like the Sidekick! A phone and ODA and amazing little device with everything stored in the cloud! But note which platform is dominating today, especially after the outage last year where the Sidekick went down and every single user suddenly had nothing, nada, bupkis. No numbers, photos, contacts, emails, nothing.
The truth is that it is simply too inexpensive to add local storage capabilities to devices (or at minimum not significantly more expensive than producing a limited device), thereby setting your product apart to the masses as more reliable and secure. Meanwhile software vendors constantly utilize those advancements and storage for new programs on your device creating previously unheard of capabilities at rock bottom prices. Apple App store anyone? What's a Sidekick?
The truth is that by the time cost drivers are reacted to, the cost drivers have changed. Example: Storage was very expensive, (think back to when the Sidekick made sense). However, today you can buy a 2Tb USB hard drive (that is more space than the combined hard drives of every computer in a city block a few years ago) for 100 bucks at Microcenter. Not too shabby, huh?
An Apple OSX computer will back up your data on that 2Tb local hard drive day by day, without you even thinking about it. Sure, competing cloud based online services like “Carbonite Back Up” exist today (and then), but it was too cheap not to add that capability to OSX and Time Machine backup was a huge differentiator for Apple, even though Apple is a huge believer in the cloud. Bottom line: The advances in tech are too fast and the costs are too low for local capabilities to be swept away by the inexorable imperial trooper forces of the BRAND NEW CLOUD!!!
Well, actually it’s not really that “new”.
We’ve tried the “cloud” model before in business, we called it the client/server “dumb terminal” model. You sat before a monitor with a limited box that connected to everything at a smart server (storage et al), generally in the same building or campus. Anyone that remembers working for the old Ma Bell remembers those green screen buggers very well. The distances to the servers were different then, but it is a good analogy all the same.
However, in short order the constant very cheap advancement in the desktop’s capability (Thanks Moore!) and VisiCalc (Yay unseen software advancement!) created the mixed model we have today and neither of these conditions is really going away. I might be crazy, but there is never a low-cost increase in functionality that is not exploited by clever business people for both the personal and business markets. I think of the future as mixed, not cloud based or local based. Think “cloud & local cloud”, where major business applications, a lot of content, and some personal files are on the web (Google mail/photos) but others remain in a mini-web of intelligent devices on your home… your own “local cloud”.
Even your watch can be a portal/window into (and part of) your local cloud, comprised of a communications device or two and a base (your PC/Mac) with local storage that integrates with every other display and sound device in your house, and can in fact even send your content to you while traveling, for those times when you do not want to access the big cloud for content/data directly. In fact, early adopters already have every bit of that. Bringing the Internet (the big cloud) or your hard drive (your own little cloud) onto your TV, phone etc... Whatever you want AND whatever you have, wherever you want it. It is a mixed model, and it works. The iPhone, the iPad, the Slingbox, the Boxee box (way sweet), the InPulse watch (/faint)... it's all there, and none of them will give up on giving you more than you asked for, because if they don't someone else will. Wait till all the standards settle out, it will be amazing.
But hang on, let's hit that last reason why the hype should (at least somewhat) be toned down:
4) Privacy (and the associated issue of security thereof)
Some people were rudely awakened recently at the complete lack of privacy in the cloud. Google went live with the disastrous "Google Buzz", and inadvertently gave stalkers way to much potential information and contact with their ex-wives and girlfriends. Privacy advocates howled and Google retreated, changing privacy settings in short order. Meanwhile, celebu-skanks still using Sidekicks were stunned to find out their accounts could be hacked, and all their "intimate pictures" were suddenly everywhere online. Ouch. People do not forget cloud security failures.
Not that your PC can't be hacked of course, but which is a better target? a) Millions of individual time consuming hacks, or b) one big hack with everybody's naughty stuff in one convenient place? Oh yeah, and tax information, SS numbers etc... stored for you in the cloud! Sleep tight!
Look, some things are private for a reason folks.
More cloud? You bet! Bring it on! I can't wait! It will be huge and awesome to see. Will EVERYTHING move there and change society forever ala the Matrix? Me, Moore, clever programmers and gadget sellers (and privacy) say “not so fast!”.
/shrug
Your mileage may vary of course. Feel free to disagree with righteous indignation! I am a Luddite! An unbeliever! (Burn him! Burn him!) Yeah…I’ll just watch a movie on my iPhone (local) while checking my email (cloud), and get the best of both worlds, while still retaining at least some semblance of control over my own data. Microsoft, Google, and faceless bureaucrats be damned. The future is "Partly cloudy, with a chance of nerds".
Hands off my tax return miscreant! The pictures of the lovely Mrs. Irritable Pundit at the beach, are not yours to peruse!
Though yeah, I admit, that's a heck of a bikini. ;)
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