Brushfire of Freedom
The Irritable Pundit
Swine flu is all the rage. It is the newest pandemic, that seems to be barely "pan", and only technically "demic". It is on CNN every hour, with images of schools closing and people kissing in masks. Your own Irritable Pundit is officially irritated. Allow me, dear friends, to take you on an expedition! I shall carry you through math, medicine, and mayhem, and in the process introduce you to my mistress, "Perspective".
Silent Spring - Interesting book, Man's foolish tampering with chemicals will kill us all.
Andromeda Strain - Heck of a movie. It was based on a bug that wipes out humanity because of mans foolishness.
The China Syndrome - Man's foolish attempts to harness the atom will kill us all. (yes, yes, nuclear engineers break into helpless fits of laughter when watching it, but work with me for a bit).
"What", you ask, "do all of these things have in common?"
Three things dear friends!
1) a core of truth
2) a lot of foolishness
3) an absence of perspective
You see, chemicals can kill, bugs can kill, radiation can kill, and yet we just keep on... living? Wait a tic, something isn't jiving here.
Our population continues to increase, we have a standard of living, health, lifespan (77.8 years) and an infant mortality rate (6.87 deaths per 1,000 live births) that our great-grandfathers could not possibly fathom.
Why then, do we hear a constant cry of "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™ What does this mean?
Fret not, for I your ever sane and frighteningly handsome host, shall explain immediately!
It means we are all entirely too in fear of our mortality (where the unusual is concerned anyway). Also it points out that there is good money to be made in a crisis. Policies, studies, grants, and of course ratings (I'm looking at YOU, CNN).
In my amazing lifetime "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™ has been uttered over a veritable host of silliness. Lets examine a few, shall we? Remember all of these things were either unknown but lurking imminent dangers or definately on their way here NOW!
DDT "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™ (actually, a significant number of people DID die from DDT. Specifically from its absence.)
Artificial sweeteners "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™
Alar "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™
cranberries "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™
Anthrax "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™
Ebola "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™
Swine flu I "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™
Lead "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™
asbestos "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™
heterosexual aids epidemic "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™
mad cow "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™
Bird flu "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™
SARS "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™
Granite countertops (radiation, gas) "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™
cell phones "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™
powerlines "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™
Water bottles (Bisphenol-A (BPA) ) "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™
Shower curtins (Phthalatesare chemicals) "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™
Formaldehyde in bras "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™
Swine flu II "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™
And do not forget that every 10 years or so, we are running out of food! Water! Oil! Natural Gas! Places to put trash! We can't keep up with the population bomb! Global Cooling/Warming! "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™
Did you notice what a lovely day we had today? Sunshine, a few newly arrived robins in the yard? Bliss I tell you, bliss. So why do so many people accept the fear sold to us by dealers in desperation?
Well, the truth is, that people in general do not understand the grander scale of our existence, as all experience to an individual is local. They know what they see and feel and hear. Those things directly affecting you come intuitively, so people automatically have an understanding of the numerator of any scare story, but not the denominator. Hence when hearing a numerator, they over emphasize its actual impact. "17,000 people have died of X since the early 1900s" sounds scary. As most can't intuitively grasp how many people have been shuffling along this mortal coil since the 1900s.
According to "Final Exits" by Michael Largo, 17,000 have died since the 1900s from... the common toothpick (sepsis and choking). In fact, there are 8000 toothpick related injuries every year. Want to play baseball? No problem, except for the 500,000 injuries due to baseballs each year (according to the AAOS). In fact, there are approximately 13 deaths annually from baseball impacts to the chest (do not get me started on the balls to the head). Let's go swimming then! Well no, let's not. 480 people die everyday in waterways and pools (drowning, duh).
But how many people chew toothpicks? Play baseball? SWIM for heaven's sake?
Ah, thats the denominator and it is larger than you can grasp without serious mental effort. Those injuries, as a percentage are absurdly low. Though to be fair, they are one and all much more statistically significant than the deaths from the "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™ canards.
Listen up dear friends, there are 155,000 deaths every day. And that sounds massive until you try (and its hard) to really genuinely grasp the actual number of people there are on this good earth - 6.5 Billion. In the US, there are between 6500 and 6800 (depends on your source) deaths every single day. That's a town disappearing every afternoon. But in a country of 300+ million, it's a statistical shrug (at best).
Lets go with 6500 deaths a day as a baseline. Heart disease kills 2500 (remember this is every single day), and cancer takes another 1500. The numbers get much smaller from there. Car accidents (120), the flu (just the regular flu, 120), and so on. Some of our most media gruesomely celebrated causes of death are actually quite small in comparison. For example, 5 times as many people died today from diabetes (200) as from HIV (40).
So, why aren't we all dead? And if all this is so, how come there are so many more cases of "fill in the blank" today than before?
Because, while there is one death every 14 seconds ( "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!"™), there is one birth every 7 seconds. In fact there is an old line that of all the people who have ever been alive on earth, only 10% of them are dead. Its not quite accurate, but its close enough to be worth mentioning.
So when someone starts talking about the deaths from the new swine flu (all 14 of them since this whole mess started) try to remember that 120 people died today in the US from the common flu, and though sad, statistically it is not even enough to make me fire up my calculator.
And for additional perspective, while you consider the 155,000 deaths every day, I would like to point out that there will be 115,000 abortions in that same day. While you were reading this approximately 400 pregnancies were aborted (assuming it took 5 minutes for you to read).
Perspective is a cold mistress.
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